Fancy Brain Teasers Do Not Predict Success in a Job

Just ran into this article about Google coming to a conclusion about the [in]famous "brain teasers" method of conducting interviews: Not surprisingly, they found that asking these questions do not show any correlation to the ultimate long term performance of their hires.

I always found the questions to be a bit gimmicky - the most it showed was if the person being interviewed was quick on his feet or not; it didn't say anything about whether the quick thinking was right or not and whether it would lead to the solution. If you look at real life examples you'd find that most successful people are those that keep hammering away at the problem till they achieve a breakthrough. Other than in hand-to-hand combat situations, quick thinking is generally not the most important predictor of future success. Angela Lee Duckworth talked about this in an interesting presentation at TED - her analysis, after years of teaching math to 7th graders, has lead her to believe that it is "grit", and not IQ, that is a more reliable predictor of academic and professional success.

Another finding indicated that a successful hiring is a complete crap shoot! You may interview a person all you want, look at his GPA, talk to people who recommend him - it ultimately comes down what that person wants you, the interviewer, to think of him. You probably need a Master's degree in psychoanalysis to be able to cut through people's presentation to look into their souls and determine whether they'll be successful in your company or not. And even then you'd not be able to predict future circumstances that will influence their performance.

The best way to improve a person's performance depends, to a large extent, on the leader of the group. As I pointed out in another post, an inconsistent leader is a big killer of morale and productivity. Being consistent in your approach to management and instructions will encourage everyone to put their best foot forward, without fearing that you will later change your mind and all their work will come to a naught.
The other, not very surprising, conclusion was the disconnect between performance at school and long term performance in 'real life". Schools, I've believed for a long time, have not been designed to produce risk taking entrepreneurial members of the society. At the graduate school level, in the US at least, this mold is partially broken and people are encouraged think on their own but till you reach that level of schooling you are mostly encouraged to conform with the teacher's expectation - there is only one correct response to a problem and they are the arbiters of what it is!

In any case, I could go on and on on this subject but I'd encourage you to read at least the summarized conclusions and, if you have a bit more time on your hand, the full interview on New Your Times with Laszlo Bock of Google. Let me know your thoughts on the subject in comments either here or on my Google+ page.

Risk Analysis (or, How to Avoid Disaster)

Having a failed project in the portfolio will usually leave a bad taste in any project manager's mouth but failure can also be used as a teaching moment. It is said that it took more than 6000 attempts before Edison found the right material for his incandescent light bulb. When asked how it felt to fail so many times his answer was that he did not fail. He had found 6000 ways to not make a light bulb!

One major lesson to be learned is that every project needs a proper risk analysis before you spend too much money and effort on it... and plan ahead to meet the risks head on when and if they become reality. You should look at the following sources of risks, at a minimum, to analyze and come up with a mitigation plan.

Stakeholder Commitment

Stakeholders need to be absolutely committed to the project. It is no use going into a project if any of the major stakeholders are not convinced that the project will bring benefit to them or if they perceive a conflict with other parts of their strategic objectives. There is nothing more dangerous to a project than a stakeholder who will withdraw its support as soon as the going gets tough or if they see a tactical or strategic advantage in doing so. The stakeholders should ask themselves, “how does the project play into the stated strategic objectives of the company?” Questions should also be asked to determine the responsibilities of the decision makers, and the effect if these decisions are not made in time.

Planning

A project is based on three main pillars - scope, cost and time - and the PM should look at the three to find potential sources of risk. One should always ask: Is the scope well defined? Are the objectives clear and achievable? Do the supervisors know the limits of the scope? How will you control scope creep and gold plating? Can you break down the project into smaller subprojects for better management? Has the budget been well prepared, vetted and agreed to? What happens if the project runs into a cash flow problem? What happens if the estimate is not credible? What happens if the project conditions on site do not match conditions stated in the RFQ? Is the project too long? Is the Cone of Uncertainty a concern? Is the change management plan in place?

Resources

Resources are the backbone of all projects. Do you have adequate staff with proper experience and qualification? Have they worked with a similar client before? What is the risk of disruption due to staff turnover? Is there a proper HR plan in place? Are the roles and responsibilities of everyone clear? Have team members worked together before? If not, is team-work a concern? Are adequate resources available locally? Will [on job] training be required? Is there a correct balance between the direct and indirect resources? Is there a procurement system in place? What is the plan B in case one of your subcontractors does not perform according to expectations?

Monitoring and Control

This is where all projects succeed or fail. It is imperative that the PM ask themselves the following: Have adequate resources for control and monitoring provided for in the plan? Are processes in place?  Is the flow of information clear to everyone? Are the reporting requirements and responsibilities clear to everyone? Are the quality requirements clear to everyone? Is the ITP in place and being followed?

Closing

The most difficult part of a project happens to be the closing phase. I can speak with experience that if not properly planned for, the closing of a project can turn into a hellish, long, drawn out process without bringing in any income to the project. Please ask yourself if there is a proper process in place to close the project to everyone’s satisfaction.

There are other questions you may ask while performing a risk analysis for your project but these should point you in the right direction. Above everything else a PM should realize that there are no certainties in a project - the best you can do is to plan for known risks and be flexible enough to be able to meet unknown challenges if they arrive. Keep in mind, too, that risks may also be positive and be prepared to take advantage of such risks should they materialize.

A great tool for basic risk analysis is available on the Leading Answers blog. Although the excel spreadsheet (available for free download) is geared towards the IT industry, it may inspire you to come up with something similar for your own needs.